The Nasdaq closed at a fresh record today, thanks largely to strength among tech giants and renewed hopes that the Federal Reserve will shift policy at its meeting next week. Investors zeroed in on soft jobless claims and mixed inflation data as signs that passion for rate cuts might be justified.

Microsoft was among the stocks pushing markets higher, viewed as having sidestepped major regulatory risk after revising its pricing in Europe in response to antitrust pressures. That move gave markets one less reason to worry and reinforced a growth-favorite tilt. Meanwhile, Tesla regained some footing after recent dips, helping carry sentiment in a market where tech remains the backbone of upside moves.

At the same time, inflation-related data is creating tension. Consumer prices didn’t accelerate as feared, but inflation expectations over longer horizons crept upward. Treasury yields rose modestly, especially on 10-year notes, as traders reprice risk and discount future rate cuts. The market mood is cautious: optimism about easing is strong, but fragile.

What makes the moment pivotal is not just what’s priced in but what’s still unknown. The upcoming Fed meeting on September 17 is now seen as critical. How strong will the central bank's dovish language be? Will it signal multiple rate cuts ahead or hedge toward risk? Investors are watching for signs in Fed forecasts, meeting minutes, and the upcoming inflation reports that will influence the decision.

For now, tech leadership is firm, but the balance is delicate. If inflation expectations continue rising, or if any major economic report surprises to the upside, the case for cuts could weaken. Today’s record close suggests that for this moment, markets believe the soft landing story is more likely than not.

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