You’ll hear a lot of noise at the dinner table tomorrow about the "Santa Claus Rally." Here is the cheat sheet so you can sound smarter than your uncle.

The Reality Check: The "Santa Rally" isn't just a feeling, it's a technical timeframe. It officially begins the trading day after Christmas (Friday, Dec 26) and runs through the first two trading days of January.

Why It Matters: Historically, the S&P 500 gains about 1.3% during this specific window. Why? Because the "bears" (sellers) are on vacation, tax-loss selling is finished, and people are investing their holiday bonuses.

The Strategy: Don't chase it. If we get a pop on Friday, it’s usually low-quality buying. But if the market drops during this window? That is a major red flag for 2026. Watch the trend, but keep your wallet closed until January.

Crypto Never Sleeps: While the NYSE is closed tomorrow, Bitcoin and Solana will be trading. Volatility often spikes on Christmas Day because liquidity is so thin. If you hold crypto, set your stop-losses or stop checking your phone.

Retail Reality: Amazon (AMZN) finished flat. The holiday spending numbers will come out next week, that is the real test for the economy, not today's price action.

The Definition: A market condition where there are very few buyers and sellers.

The Real Talk: Imagine an empty store. If one person walks in and buys something, it's a big deal. In a "thin" market (like today), it doesn't take much money to move a stock price up or down. That’s why you shouldn't trust price moves on holidays, they are often fake-outs.

In 1999, the S&P 500 peaked. Then it took 14 years to gradually recover by 2013.

Today? Goldman Sachs sounds crazy forecasting 3% returns for 2024 to 2034.

But we’re currently seeing the highest price for the S&P 500 compared to earnings since the dot-com boom.

So, maybe that’s why they’re not alone; Vanguard projects about 5%.

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_{*Investing involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd.}