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market overview
⚪ S&P 500: +0.53 points (+0.007%). The definition of "wait and see."
🟢 Dow Jones: +0.55%. The safety trade. Investors rotated into boring industrial stocks.
🔴 Nasdaq: -0.44%. Tech got sold off. Nvidia dragged the index down as traders took profits.
🔴 Bitcoin: $90,130 (-1.2%). Slipping lower. It’s struggling to hold the $90k support level.
the lead: the NFP trap
If today felt weird, it’s because tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics drops the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.
Wall Street is looking for a "Goldilocks" number (~70k jobs added).
Too Hot: Bad. If hiring is too strong, the Fed won't cut rates.
Too Cold: Bad. If hiring is dead, recession fears spike.
Just Right: Modest growth. This is the only way we get a rally.
Do not try to trade the news release at 8:30 AM. The algorithms will react in milliseconds. Wait for the market to open and pick a direction around 10:00 AM before you commit capital.
our radar
It finally happened. Alphabet (GOOGL) overtook Apple (AAPL) in market cap today. Alphabet hit a new high while Apple shares lagged. The market is clearly voting that Google’s AI strategy is winning right now.
Defense stocks surged today (Lockheed, RTX) while everything else was flat. Geopolitical tension is back on the menu.
WTI Crude popped +2.0% to $57.10. If oil keeps rising, the "inflation is over" narrative dies. Watch this closely.
stock saver university
today’s term: "Consensus Estimate"
Definition: The average forecast of all the major Wall Street analysts for a specific data point (like tomorrow's jobs number).
The actual number doesn't matter as much as the difference from the consensus. If analysts expect 70k jobs and we get 72k, the market won't care. If we get 150k? The market will crash. You aren't trading the economy; you are trading against everyone else's expectations.
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