While most of Wall Street held breath ahead of the U.S. inflation reading, real action happened off the beaten path: lithium stocks caught fire, defense firms stumbled on Ukraine peace hopes, and chipmakers struck unusual revenue-sharing deals with the U.S., all signaling inflection points worth watching.

Lithium producers are spiking today, surging double-digit percentages, after shutdowns at a major Chinese mine tightened global supply. The disruption is a boon for battery metals and EV supply chains already under strain. This isn’t just a headline, it’s a structural supply shock that resets pricing dynamics.

As U.S., Russia diplomatic talks gain momentum, European defense firms slid under pressure. Investors appear to be reducing exposure, with major players down 3–5% in early trading. Geopolitics just turned from “buy on breakout” to “sit tight and watch.”

In a rare move, Nvidia and AMD agreed to hand over 15% of China chip revenue to the U.S. government to secure export licenses, an unusual arrangement that layers politics back into semis. The broader trade truce expires tomorrow, but today’s deal suggests markets are already bracing for friction, not easing.

The market's holding pattern masks deeper shifts: energy materials realignment, geopolitical easing, and semiconductors under new constraints. Don’t underestimate the noise building behind the calm, tomorrow’s CPI is a trigger, but today’s moves matter too.